This is my first post in a while, probably my last for a while as well. It’s about the Nigerian presidential elections. My job these days does not allow me to pass comments on a lot of things, so I joined the monitoring spirits section of social media. This is one rare foray into the conversation section of Facebook.
Nigeria is in extremely dire economic straits. I doubt 1% of the folks on these streets appreciate the depth of our economic woes. I’ll beg Jekwu to write about them in lucid terms. Against the backdrop of our economic problems, I am stunned beyond words by the raft of poor options facing the country for the presidential elections. None, perhaps as disturbing as the man who calls himself Bola Tinubu. I’ll be upfront, a very perverse side of me is looking forward to a Tinubu victory.
I could write tomes about how defective a candidate Mr. Tinubu is, but better writers than myself have done that already. So I’ll address those at the vanguard of his campaign. I honestly do not begrudge anyone who is heralding the Tinubu campaign for financial reasons. Ìlú le (country hard, in pidgin), so I respect your hustle. My only advice, please ensure you’re paid in fungible dollars. If you don’t know the meaning of fungible dollars, you may need to pay me for consultancy services. Any other means of remuneration, you will face severe buyer’s remorse within 12 months.
The second category, who deserve our pity, before our scorn, are those who genuinely believe in Tinubu as the Messiah. Not only is a person in this category not being paid for their efforts, they have no financial cushion to serve as a buffer for the woes to come. I will keep you in prayers. Your variant of buyer’s remorse will be the stuff of mental health clinical intervention.
My driver’s name is Baba Yaya, and over the last 4 years or so, he has benefited from impromptu macroeconomic lessons on our drives around town. He is sensible enough to have stocked on his routine medication for the next 6 months. The reason is simple, the country’s import capacity is so severely degraded that there will be the inevitable rolling scarcity of imported raw materials and finished goods for a while – cue the fuel scarcity. It isn’t rocket science. When you spend more than 100% of your revenues on debt servicing, you will need to cut corners elsewhere as you slide towards a Venezuelan situation. Those corners are imports. Those corners are capital investments. Just brace yourself, regardless of your favourite candidate and how much you are paid (or not paid) to support him.
A presidency of patronages and settlement, a template that Mr. Tinubu has perfected, will exacerbate our the problems of our economic deficits beyond recognition. He has perfected the "owo orita" (toll fees / rent-seeking) model in Lagos; expect more of the same in Abuja when he is elected. Ignore for a minute his macabre ways and means plan to "decouple the budget from exchange earnings", a presidency that looks anything like he has done in Lagos will be the equivalent of Dante’s Inferno (Nigerian Edition). For the sake of everyone who is supporting Mr. Tinubu, I hope you are sufficiently hedged to weather the economic turbulence in the wake of his victory.
So, all the best in our respective choices as we head to the polls. Just bear these headline numbers in mind, we are on course on spend more than 120% of our revenues on debt servicing. This excludes other recurrent expenditure and consumption subsidies. In simple terms, ìgboro le (the streets are not smiling). Try and vote for a candidate that won’t kill you with poverty.